Fueled by a sustained boom in sales of its diabetes and obesity products, Eli Lilly will become the world’s top-seller of prescription drugs by 2030 and will hold the top rung by a wide margin. according to data analytics specialist Evaluate Pharma in its 2030 projection.
In its “World Preview 2025" report, Evaluate projects that Lilly’s prescription drug sales will reach $113 billion, well ahead of second-place Novo Nordisk, which has drawn an $84 billion estimate for 2030.
The common thread between Lilly and Novo, of course, is their dominance of the diabetes/obesity market, which Evaluate figures will grow at a 20% annual clip between 2024 and 2030. Evaluate sees Lilly taking more advantage of the growth, increasing its prescription drug sales from $41 billion last year, while the analysts expect Novo will double its sales over the period from $42 billion in 2024.
“By [2030], GLP-1 agonists and related combinations will comprise close to 9% of all prescription drug sales,” Evaluate wrote. “GLP-1-based drugs are now a category apart, projected to reach hitherto unseen sales peaks.”
In 2030, Evaluate projects Lilly’s diabetes treatment Mounjaro will be the world’s top-selling drug, generating $36 billion, while the company’s obesity medicine Zepbound will be the third-best seller at $25.5 billion.
Meanwhile, three Novo GLP-1 drugs are projected by Evaluate to be among the world’s top 10—Ozempic ($24.4 billion), Wegovy ($18.1 billion) and next-generation obesity drug Cagrisema ($15.2 billion), which has yet to be approved.
In addition to Cagrisema, Evaluate places three other clinical-stage obesity treatments on its list of 10 top-selling drugs in 2030. Two of the candidates are in Lilly’s pipeline—oral GLP-1 treatment orforglipron, which is pegged for 2030 sales of $12.7 billion, and triple-action retatrutide, which has drawn a projection of $5.6 billion. The other projected top-selling obesity candidate is Amgen’s MariTide, with $3.7 billion in estimated 2030 sales.
Company breakdown
According to Evaluate, Lilly and Novo’s juggernaut trajectory will allow them to quickly surpass the industry’s 2024 leaders in prescription drug sales: 1) Johnson & Johnson ($55.7 billion); 2) AbbVie ($54.5 billion); 3) Merck ($54.3 billion); 4) Roche ($52.5 billion); 5) Pfizer ($52 billion); 6) AstraZeneca ($50.9 billion); 7) Novartis ($50.2 billion).
Of those drugmakers, Evaluate sees AbbVie increasing its prescription drug sales the most by 2030, to $75.3 billion, behind its immune-inflammatory duo of Skyrizi, which the analysts see generating $26.6 billion in sales in 2030, and Rinvoq, which is tabbed for $14.8 billion in sales.
Evaluate also sees J&J increasing its prescription sales over the next five years, to $67.8 billion, behind oncology standout Darzalex, which the analysts see generating $16.6 billion in sales in 2030.
Other companies with significant sales increases over the next five years include Sanofi, which Evaluate envisions will leap from $44.2 billion in 2024 to $64.8 billion, due in major part to Regeneron-partnered Dupixent, which the analysts project to hit $25 billion in sales in 2030.
Evaluate also projects a major bump in sales for AstraZeneca from $50.9 billion to $64.4 billion in 2030, thanks in part to Daiichi Sankyo-partnered ADC cancer drug Enhertu, which has been pegged to generate $15.2 billion in sales in 2030.
Roche doesn’t have a drug on the top 10 list of projected sales, but Evaluate figures the Swiss company is in line for a solid bump in prescription drug sales from $52.5 billion to $66.3 billion.
Evaluate sees Merck’s prescription drug sales increasing from $54.3 billion last year to $60 billion in 2030, which might be a surprise considering an estimated slide in sales of oncology superstar Keytruda from $29.5 billion last year to $17 billion in 2030 after it becomes subject to biosimilar competition in 2028.
Credit the company’s formulation of a subcutaneous version of Keytruda, which is up for approval in September and Evaluate has tabbed for $7.6 billion in sales in 2030. The analysts called Mark’s development of subcutaneous Keytruda “a shining case study in life-cycle management.”
On the flip side, Evaluate is projecting small sales decreases from Novartis and Pfizer, comparing revenues from 2024 to those expected in 2030.