GlobalData analysts have tipped the global market for genomic therapies to balloon to almost $90 billion by 2030, driven by gene therapies such as Sarepta Therapeutics’ Elevidys and Novartis’ Zolgensma.
The analysts grouped novel modalities such as gene therapies, oncolytic viruses, oligonucleotides, mRNA vaccines and recombinant vector vaccines under their definition of genomic therapies. Last year, global sales of genomic therapies were $20.1 billion, according to the analysts. Driven by Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 shots, mRNA vaccines accounted for the lion’s share of genomic therapy sales in 2024.
GlobalData is tipping genomic therapy sales to rise to $89.8 billion in 2030—a more than fourfold jump from the 2024 total—a forecast that reflects confidence in gene therapies especially. GlobalData is predicting a compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of 28.3% for the overall genomic therapy category, while the forecasted CAGR for gene therapy, specifically, is 50.8%.
The analysts expect gene therapy sales to hit $30.9 billion by 2030. Elevidys and Zolgensma, treatments for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and spinal muscular atrophy, respectively, are key to the gene therapy forecasts. GlobalData expects sales of Sarepta’s Elevidys to hit $2.75 billion in 2030, and Novartis’ Zolgensma is on course to generate $2.1 billion in sales by then.
GlobalData’s Elevidys forecast is lower than some other analysts’ peak sales predictions but still represents a show of faith in the growth potential of a gene therapy that is currently in a tricky period. Sarepta wiped around $500 million off its full-year guidance earlier this month to reflect a reassessment of the outlook for Elevidys. The change reflected factors including the expected impact of a patient’s death on near-term demand.
GlobalData named RNAi and antisense oligonucleotides as other drivers of growth in the genomic therapy segment. The analysts are predicting RNAi sales will swell from $2.5 billion in 2024 to $18.7 billion in 2030, while antisense oligonucleotides are on a slightly slower trajectory, with sales forecasted to increase from $3.1 billion to $14.3 billion over the analyzed period.
The analysts see mRNA vaccines as a relative laggard, with a CAGR of 8.4%, and said they expect recombinant vector vaccines to grow quickly off a small base to reach $1.34 billion by 2030.
George El-Helou, strategic intelligence analyst at GlobalData, said in a statement that “several market barriers remain” in the genomic therapy space. The barriers include “the high costs associated with drug discovery, manufacturing and logistical procedures within the industry,” El-Helou said.