For the first time in its 16-year analysis of the pharma industry, Deloitte found obesity drugs are the largest contributor to late-stage pipeline value, overtaking longtime leader oncology.
The findings are detailed in the consulting firm’s latest report, “Navigating the GLP-1 boom: Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation.”
GLP-1 drugs now account for about 38% of projected commercial inflows and roughly a quarter of forecast sales from the 2025 late-stage pipeline, driven by blockbuster products from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
That, Deloitte said in its report, marks “a rapid shift from 2022,” when obesity contributed just 1% of projected value.
But Deloitte warns that this is masking some serious issues within pharma and leaves the industry vulnerable to area-specific shocks.
Analysts have increased their average forecast of peak sales per drug asset to $598 million in 2025, a jump from $510 million a year earlier.
“This surge in expected value, however, is not distributed evenly across the pipeline; it is overwhelmingly attributable to a few very high-forecast GLP-1/GIP assets,” the analysts warn.
While many of these drugs are also expanding beyond diabetes and obesity into areas such as heart disease, liver fibrosis and even osteoarthritis, accounting for more than one-third of all inflows leaves gaps elsewhere.
“When the GLP-1/GIP mechanisms of action are excluded from the analysis, the underlying health of industry R&D productivity is significantly weaker, with a rate of return of just 2.9% (down from 3.8% in 2024) and average forecast peak sales of $353 million (down from $370 million in 2024).”
This, Deloitte said, is creating a “critical strategic challenge,” as portfolio value is being squeezed into a “small number of mechanisms, resulting in a high degree of competition at the indication level.”
And if these drugs fail, or their mechanisms come under pressure in trials, it could create a shock that reverberates across the industry, given their outsized value.