As vaccines industry struggles, Merck's adult pneumococcal shot Capvaxive off to strong start

With vaccine sales on the decline across the industry, these are tough times for Merck to launch its new pneumococcal shot Capvaxive. But in the third quarter, the company recorded encouraging sales for the vaccine, which is the world's first pneumococcal shot designed specifically for adults.

Capvaxive generated sales of $244 million in the period, which was up from $129 million in Q2. Over its first four quarters on the market—since the CDC recommended its use in October of last year for people age 50 and older—Capvaxive pulled in sales of $530 million.

“[Capvaxive] is off to a very strong start,” Merck chief financial officer Caroline Litchfield said during the company’s quarterly conference call Thursday.

The result for Capvaxive comes as Merck and the world’s other top vaccine sellers are seeing declining revenues from their shots.

Sanofi reported last week that its overall vaccine sales were down 8%, due largely due to lower vaccination rates and increased price competition for its flu shots. GSK managed to squeak out a 2% overall increase in sales of its vaccines despite a 15% decline in the U.S., largely due to a demand shortfall for shingles vaccine, Shingrix. 

As for Merck, the sales of its other vaccines fell in the third quarter. HPV shot Gardasil, which is still reeling from plummeting demand in China, was down 24%. Sales of ProQuad, MMR II and Varivax, which Merck lumps together in its reporting, were down 3%. And Merck’s other pneumococcal shot, Vaxneuvance, saw a 6% decline to $226 million for the period.

Merck has touted Capvaxive as an alternative to the world’s dominant pneumococcal vaccine, Pfizer’s Prevnar 20. The company cites CDC epidemiologic data that says the 21 serotypes that Capvaxive covers account for 84% of the pneumococcal disease of people age 50 and older, which compares to a 52% figure for the 20 serotypes covered by Prevnar 20. Merck also reminds patients that no studies have been conducted to compare Capvaxive’s efficacy to that of Prevnar 20.

Pfizer will reveal its third-quarter results next week.

Capvaxive is one of the growth drivers Merck is counting on to soften the blow from the oncoming loss of exclusivity of cancer superstar Keytruda.

Another is pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) treatment Winrevair, which achieved sales of $360 million in the quarter, which were up 141% year-over-year, as 1,500 new prescriptions were written in the period.

Merck also is depending on the new cancer drug Welireg, which generated sales of $196 million—up 42% year over year and 21% sequentially.

Another growth driver is chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) drug Ohtuvayre. Merck did not list sales of the medicine because it was acquired in the company’s $10 billion buyout of Verona Pharma, which became official earlier this month.

“As we go into 2026, we are expecting solid top-line growth for our company and that growth will be increasingly fueled by the number of new launches that we’ve had,” Litchfield said.

The success of the new launches is reflected in comparing Keytruda’s sales to the overall revenue figures for the company. In the second quarter, Keytruda’s sales accounted for 51% of the company’s revenue. In the third quarter, that figure shrank to 47%.

With revenue of $17.3 billion for the quarter, Merck topped analysts' consensus by $300 million. The company tightened its annual revenue projection, with its midpoint at $64.75 billion, which is down slightly from $64.80 billion previously.