What kind of uptake can Gilead Sciences expect for its highly touted, long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) injection Yeztugo, which was approved last week by the FDA?
An HIV physician, who shared her views with analysts from Mizuho Securities, expects that a “majority” of her 125 PrEP users will switch to Yeztugo within the next 12 months, according to an investor note recapping the discussion.
The doctor added that her patients have been “anxiously awaiting” the opportunity to try the capsid inhibitor and that she has already seen increased interest since it was approved, the Mizuho note said.
The reason for the interest: Yeztugo is dosed every six months and has been shown to be 99% effective in preventing HIV infection.
Of the doctor’s current PrEP patients, 45% to 50% are on Gilead’s daily oral drug Descovy and roughly 33% are using GSK’s Apretude, which is injected every two months. The doctor’s other patients are on Gilead’s older daily pill Truvada or one of its generic versions.
The doctor told Mizuho that she suspects some of her patients remain on daily pills because of the inconvenience of traveling six times a year to receive Apretude. Some of those patients would be open to switching to Yeztugo, she figures. Additionally, the doctor estimated that between 5% to 10% of her patients remain on daily pills because of their aversion to needles.
Overall, the doctor said she expects the “vast majority” of her Apretude users will switch to Yeztugo, and a “majority” of those on daily pills will do the same, according to the Mizuho note.
While most Wall Street analysts have tabbed Yeztugo’s peak annual sales potential between $4 billion and $5 billion, Mizuho’s analysts are more bullish with an $8 billion peak sales projection.
Last year, Gilead rolled up $2.1 billion in sales of Descovy, while GSK reported sales of Apretude at 279 million pounds sterling ($381 million), an increase of 93% in the drug's third full year on the market.
Meanwhile, some experts believe the approval of Yeztugo could help convince more people to use PrEP. In 2022, just 36% of those who met the eligibility requirements in the U.S. were using PrEP, with larger gaps among women, African Americans and Latinos, according to an analysis from GlobalData.
Yeztugo could help address this issue, according to key opinion leaders who were interviewed by GlobalData, citing adherence challenges and the stigma associated with daily PrEP medicines.