Despite Blenrep uncertainty, GSK sticks to its £40B sales projection for 2031

With a portfolio of 14 potential blockbuster treatments that it expects to launch over the next five years, GSK is sticking to its projection to generate sales of more than 40 billion pounds sterling ($53 billion) in 2031, regardless of whether it regains U.S. approval of key blood cancer drug Blenrep.

Earlier this month, an FDA advisory committee voted down the previously approved treatment, saying its risk exceeded its benefit, with the recommendation that it should remain sidelined. The FDA is scheduled to deliver an approval verdict for Blenrep on October 23.

“There is absolutely no change to our expectations,” Emma Walmsley, GSK’s CEO, said in a quarterly conference call. “No update at all, except for reiterating our confidence in terms of our outlooks.”

For the most part, GSK stiff-armed questions about Blenrep and U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, but the British company was more than happy to discuss its growing portfolio of treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

With respect to its launch of IL-5 inhibitor Nucala to treat COPD, GSK said that the drug is off to a promising start in the indication compared to its rival, Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent. The drugs are the first two biologics cleared for the disease, both as add-on maintenance treatments for patients whose COPD is inadequately controlled.

“If I look at initial signs, we’re already ahead of where Dupixent was at this point of its launch, with new patient starts,” Luke Miels, GSK’s chief commercial officer, said on the call.

Dupixent got a head start in the indication, winning FDA approval last September, while Nucala captured its U.S. nod two months ago.

GSK touted Nucala’s 35% reduction in hospitalization and emergency room visits, which was demonstrated in a phase 3 trial, as helping spur the strong initial uptake.

“If you look at marketing research—again, early days—67% of pulmonologists said they’re likely to prescribe Nucala in COPD and prefer it versus only 30% for Dupixent,” Miels said. “Pulmonologists historically have not been as aggressive as maybe the evidence would support in terms of biologic penetration.”

Treating COPD patients is a major priority for GSK, as indicated by its deal announced Monday with China’s Hengrui Pharma. GSK is paying $500 million up front and has promised $12 billion in potential milestone payments to develop 12 early-stage treatments. The only program named by the companies was a COPD candidate.

As for the second quarter, GSK fared well overall, with sales coming in at 7.99 billion pounds ($10.6 billion). That marked an increase of 1% year over year and 6% sequentially. The company credited its specialty medicines for the growth, which were up 15%.

GSK did not adjust its 2025 revenue guidance but did say that it expects to be at the top end of its expected 3% to 5% sales increase window for the full year.